Planets Are Market’s Parent

I use a variety of techniques including current transit patterns such as planetary ingresses, the phases of the Moon, and mundane aspects. All can be used as signals to help discern the prevailing market direction. Since none of these are reliable indicators on their own, I typically use up to 20 different measurements to compile a sort of moving astrological index that reflects changing investor sentiment. In addition, I make use of the first trade charts of key stocks, stock indices, and stock exchanges. I prefer to think of chart analysis in terms of Boolean logic, where multiple factors must be present for a particular situation to occur.

There are several basic strategies for using astrology with stock market investing. The first, and most important is obtain the first trade data of a stock, ETF, currency, etc. and cast a horoscope for that time and place. Over time, this chart can then be analyzed with respect to transits, progressions, and dashas in order to ascertain the likely price movements of the stock.

These cyclical predictions of a worldwide economic depression (and the societal implications of such) are in agreement with similar predictions by Astrology on strictly financial data and market conditions.  The fact, nevertheless, is that the stock market, the economy, and thus our societies are predictable by cycles.  The fact that the stock market has continued blithely on and into the new millennium, hovering around the same levels, is not necessarily an indicator of any flaws in the theory, but rather that things on a millennial or super cycle scale do not occur quickly.  In addition, there is always the possibility that the credibility of the stock market as a leading economic indicator.

I do analyze the movements in financial markets with the movements of planets.

According to me there is conclusive proof if any 100 % relationship exists for these events and movement of planets. However, based on my model on certain configuration of planets, there is a high probability of some unusual international incidents, events, extreme days or volatility in financial markets. So according to this model there could be days of extraordinary unusual events and result in unusual volatility in financial markets. I have proven track record of predicting recent stock market crashes.

Thanking You

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President  & Head Equities

wiTdom investment advisory

 

Old Fox

We made money by being Bear for one year we also made money by being Bull for short time. But now it’s time to be Fox. That is being flexible to change your stand from Bull to bear & Vice versa in markets depending on Events.

A lively, insightful look at the world of animal intelligence:

Recent evidence has dismissed the belief that animals are simply reflex machines, acting without thought or real consciousness. In response, there has been a rush to examine animal intelligence. Yet what, precisely, is intelligence? Is it the ability to learn, the ability to remember, or the ability to survive? What delineates instinct from intelligence? Why are dolphins smarter than eagles and bees smarter than worms? Are cats smarter than dogs?

Old Fox explores the often-misconstrued world of animal intelligence. From examines the ways we have come to view motivation and intelligence in animals. By evaluating our complex relationships to animals-why we eat some animals while pampering others is often predicated on a commensurate belief in intelligence- offers us a better understanding of our own way of thinking. Entertaining, and scrupulously researched, Old Fox will challenge your previously held notions about animals and the measure of intelligence, both theirs and ours.

The idea that intelligence is a "monolithic capacity, [and] that differences among species are always quantitative, variations in amount rather than kind" is a pervasive belief and one that this book does an excellent job of refuting. Different species have differing needs for intelligence, with some extremely successful species operating on fewer neurons than they have legs.

Be Smart Investor.

Atul Sikrai.

The Big Bull Is Back.

People often come to me and ask me which financial TV channel I watch to predict markets I often laugh and say I watch “ Animal Planets”.

It’s true to understand stock markets you should be watching “Animal Planets”.

Why? Answer is that markets are like animals .If you can predict what animals will do you can predict stock markets.

For past one year I was in love with Bears. Now I see them going in for hibernations.

 Which animal is going to rule the financial equity jungle? .Answer is logical it’s “Bull”.

Yes world will be amazed to see me as “Bull” for coming few months. So welcome to “Bull Zone”. After being bearish it’s time to get Bullish.

Now watch out for aggression of bull around the world to come up and show there revenge on bears.

So what this bull zone is going to provide us?

First watch Dollar carry trade in equities to begin.

I also see Yen carry trade to start as yen shall be no more defensive bet.

Now just imagine where these stock markets will go on up side if these both mother of all carry trade starts.

What I see is major short term rally to fuel bump up in equities prices in near term.

Watch to fund mangers allocation level around world. They are highly underweight on equities.

Even small allocation to equities will start storm in stock markets .Ferocity of this bull zone is going to so furious that bear around the world have to take it on there chin if they don’t cover.

Markets often move in cycles and smart speculator is always first to see change in trend in these cycle. Don’t be rigid bear now change your stance now be Big Bull now.

Life in stock markets is like jungle. Just be right animal at right time.

Thanking you

Atul Sikrai.

Sr Vice President & Head of Equities

witdom investment advisory.

1400 Pages Views Hit.

Thanking all Readers 1400+ Page Views Hit .

Page views all time history    1,448

Mother Of All Trade :

Sep 4, 2011                       158 Pageviews

Wealth Foot Prints.

Feb 2, 2011                       138 Pageviews

Moolah  Power

Feb 15, 2011                     118 Pageviews

Who is Sikandar Of Trading ?

May 5, 2011                       49 Pageviews

 Treasure Hunt its Mind Game.

Feb 6, 2011                        22 Pageviews

 Inside the Brain of Atul Sikrai .

Oct 31, 2011                       2 Pageviews

 Prince  Of  Risk

Mar 24, 2011                      2 Pageviews

Audience :

India                   874

United States      201

United Kingdom   45

Australia               22

Singapore             17

United Arab Emirates 14

Pakistan              14

Germany             13

Russia                 12

Malaysia             10

Thanking You.

Atul Sikrai

Inside the Brain of Atul Sikrai .

Brain imaging gives us the hope of opening up the black box.Atul is confident his research will pay off one day. So far, neurofinance is 'all hat and no cattle.For now, neurofinance is more science fiction than science fact.
To Atul, neurofinance research reinforces a common-sense lesson: One should stop and think before making a big trade. If nothing else, the findings of brain researchers have made him more aware of his emotions and motivations, he says.

But its underlying premise was right: Investors make mistakes, and the more we can understand about why and how, the sooner we can correct them.He says he's confident neurofinance will catch on among other investors. Now, I want to dig deeper into the brain to better understand what is going on and see if we can refine our applications in the real world.He concluded that greed and fear played a big role in the traders' decisions and that inexperienced traders were the most likely to make emotional mistakes.

When we make trading decisions, our brain's centers for pleasure and angst wage battle. The first seeks profit; the second tries to avoid loss. Subjects who showed high activity in the anterior insula were 20 percent less likely to invest in a stock that had lost money before, even when the odds were good that they would profit. Such people might sell impulsively when markets turn against them, Atul says.

Our brains lust after money, just like they crave sex. Deep inside each subject's head, electrical currents danced through a bundle of neurons about the size and shape of a peanut. Blood was rushing to the brain's pleasure center as Atul executed mock stock and bond trades. In other words, stocks, like sex, sometimes drive us crazy. When it comes to money, logic prevails, that intellect matters in investing. People make economic choices based on all the information available to them and learn from their mistakes. As a result, their expectations about the future --- from the price.

Or so the theory goes. In practice, of course, investors do foolish things all the time. Some gamble away fortunes on money- losing investments, doubling down when logic tells them to fold, or letting winnings ride when the rational person would cash out.

Always yours

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President (wiTdom inv advisory)

Founder ( Brand Diagonal )

Chief Mentor ( Esteem MeLife)

Art of short selling

How to make money in falling markets?

9 out of 10 people don’t know how to short the markets.

Almost any investment technique will work well in a bull market – but they collapse when the markets turn treacherous… like they have recently.

The short selling strategy is one part "contrarian investing," one part "short-term profiteering," and one part "capitalizing on the biggest financial conspiracy since the breakup of Standard Oil nearly a century ago."

It is a radically different approach to investing… one that can earn big short-term profits using a simple technique.

Bottom Line: When you need to know which stocks are troubled and headed down, experts are mute. Like we said before, it's a silent conspiracy. And the people they're conspiring against are you and every other investor out there. Here's what they don't want you to know…
Short selling is a tool that can be valuable in a number of ways.
For instance, you may want to speculate that a stock is likely to decline. There could be any number of reasons. You may feel that its sales have topped out, that earnings will fall short of expectations, that the company has too much debt or too many successful competitors, that its industry is in a slump, or simply that the shares are overpriced. Short selling allows you to take advantage of these situations without resorting to using options or other derivatives.
While options can give you leverage that a short sale cannot, they have one very serious drawback: their time premium. That means when you buy a put option, unless the stock falls fairly substantially and within the relatively short time period defined by the premium, you may miss out on the profit if the stock falls after the expiration of your option.
But the past two years have been outlandishly profitable for investors who used the short selling technique.

 Warm Regards

Atul Sikrai
Sr Vice President & Head Equity
wiTdom investment advisory.

Mother Of All Trade :

This is a true story of Mother’s Sacrifice during the China Earthquake.

After the Earthquake had subsided, when the rescuers reached the ruins of a young woman’s house, they saw her dead body through the cracks. But her pose was somehow strange that she knelt on her knees like a person was worshiping; her body was leaning forward, and her two hands were supporting by an object. The collapsed house had crashed her back and her head.

With so many difficulties, the leader of the rescuer team put his hand through a narrow gap on the wall to reach the woman’s body. He was hoping that this woman could be still alive. However, the cold and stiff body told him that she had passed away for sure.

He and the rest of the team left this house and were going to search the next collapsed building. For some reasons, the team leader was driven by a compelling force to go back to the ruin house of the dead woman. Again, he knelt down and used his had through the narrow cracks to search the little space under the dead body. Suddenly, he screamed with excitement,” A child! There is a child! “

The whole team worked together; carefully they removed the piles of ruined objects around the dead woman. There was a 3 month’s old little boy wrapped in a flowery blanket under his mother’s dead body. Obviously, the woman had made an ultimate sacrifice for saving her son. When her house was falling, she used her body to make a cover to protect her son. The little boy was still sleeping peacefully when the team leader picked him up.

The medical doctor came quickly to exam the little boy. After he opened the blanket, he saw a cell phone inside the blanket. There was a text message on the screen. It said,” If you can survive, you must remember that I love you.” This cell phone was passing around from one hand to another. Every body that read the message wept. ” If you can survive, you must remember that I love you.” Such is the mother’s love for her child!!

As Mark Of Respect To Our Mother

Pass this Story to all your Friends.

Warm Regards

Atul Sikrai

Vice President wiTdom investment advisory

Founder Brand Diagonal.

Who is Sikandar Of Trading ?

Traders often undertake a search for the perfect entry system, even if it is subconsciously. If the trader doesn’t search for the perfect system, they may develop a very complicated approach, with the belief that ‘more complicated must be better’.

Some of the most effective trading systems have very simple trading rules and entry criteria, and winning traders often use very simple techniques. Invariably they use either a modified version of an existing methodology or else they have developed their own.

It could be argued that the simplest of trading methodologies are easier to implement than complex techniques. Having said that, there is another myth that says that trading requires some level of intelligence in order to be successful.

One of the greatest qualities of any open and free market is that it will not discriminate. It does not care what color your skin is, whether you are male or female, how old you are nor how intelligent you are.

It is for this last reason, that a trader who possesses nothing else but patience, discipline and a simple approach, is likely to outperform a lot of people who are more intelligent but using a complex trading system.

Another factor with losing traders is when they have a bad trade. Sometimes, they will want to start from the beginning with a new trading system with the belief that their present system is useless.

When winning traders have a bad trade they will devote some time to analyzing the trade and determine whether or not there is a lesson to be learnt from the outcome. It is unlikely however, that they will make drastic changes to their present system.

The only time they would consider significant changes to their approach would be when it was blatantly obvious that their present approach was no longer suitable.

Again, winning traders will often use simple approaches and they will use them consistently. It could be argued that a poor plan, with solid risk management rules, used consistently is going to outperform an approach where you are constantly jumping from one system to another.

When a lot of traders start out, they seek the best software available to fulfill their needs. Many charting software packages include various technical indicators that are available, and new traders seek to discover how these various indicators can be interpreted.

Numerous texts include the more popular indicators and many assume that as they are so widely documented, that they must be the best indicators to use.

Many losing traders rely too heavily on these indicators and the very mechanical systems that use them. Many would not be able to provide a brief overview of how the indicator is constructed let alone a more detailed explanation with why it should be used. Furthermore, often they will not consider using any other variables other than those declared as the defaults or the variables that the creator of the indicator stipulated.

There is no doubt that winnings traders will take advantage of computers because of their speed in analyzing large amounts of data.

What you will also find is that often, they would have also taken the time to learn the actual mathematical construction of the various technical indicators to fully understand what it is displaying. It is likely, that they could probably construct them manually if the need arose.

The importance of this is that they fully understand what the indicator is designed to achieve and therefore the best way of interpreting it and applying it practically.

Losing traders will attend seminars and courses like many others however they will often focus on the wrong things. They will try to copy the presenter's technique, by asking which indicators they use and even what time frame they use in their moving average.

This is misguided because even though the presenter may use indicator A and B does not mean that the individual asking the question should also use those two indicators.

Winning traders will always monitor new methodologies and indicators that are developed but will maintain their confidence in their own approach. They will no doubt consider them but will only incorporate some part of it should they see something that could make a valuable contribution to their present trading methodology.

This is important, because your confidence in your own trading approach is vital. Winning traders realize there is no perfect trading system and there own may be close to as good as it gets.

One of the common problems new traders face is developing an approach that is not right for them. Often new traders will tend to develop a short term trading system as they are attracted to this form of trading. Short term trading is an approach that considers trends of approximately 3 to 10 days in duration, and where the majority of positions are held for no longer than 2 weeks.

Short term trading by its very nature demands constant attention and a reasonable amount of your time during the trading week in order to monitor open positions, adjust stops, conduct analysis and make your trading decisions.

Generally speaking the potential for returns in short term trading is greater than those with medium or long term trading approaches especially when derivatives are included in the trading, hence the attraction to this style of trading. As people are generally infatuated with money, they are naturally drawn to short term trading because of the very real possibility of achieving good returns quickly.

For many people, a short term trading system may not be right for them and if it is not right for them, the chances are they will not achieve trading success over the long term.

Furthermore, often new traders who begin trading short term do not have sufficient capital to make it worth their while. They cannot tolerate losing months and the capital drawdown, and the high number of transactions results in a lot of commissions being paid, which can affect the bottom line considerably.

In short term trading, derivatives may be used to counter the lack of equity, however the degree of skill and discipline to trade these successfully is far greater, further reducing the chances of long term success, for beginner traders.

Generally speaking, losing traders place a great deal of importance on being right in a trade. There is a sense of control they think they have and there is also a degree of excitement and adrenalin associated with keeping in touch with the markets and the latest prices.

You will find some winning traders who will go for days without checking any prices confident in the knowledge that their stops are well placed away from the market action. They also don’t care about being right, only entering high probability trades and not caring when they suffer losses.

They treat trading like running a business knowing that they make some good decisions and they make some bad decisions.

There are a number of factors that separate consistently profitable traders with losing traders. Make the change yourself and commit yourself to trading profitably.

What you will also find is that often, they would have also taken the time to learn the actual mathematical construction of the various technical indicators to fully understand what it is displaying. It is likely, that they could probably construct them manually if the need arose.

The importance of this is that they fully understand what the indicator is designed to achieve and therefore the best way of interpreting it and applying it practically.

Thanking You

Atul Sikrai

Prince Of Risk

"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far they can go."

People are willing to take a chance in order to get what they want out of life.

But even among those who have taken the plunge, there are varying degrees of tolerance for risk. Some are happy to fly by the seat of their pants. Others are extremely conservative. Both of these extremes can get us in trouble.

Those who blindly take risks are much like compulsive gamblers who spend all their time and money in a casino. They might strike it lucky on occasion, but more often than not, they lose big. And what they gain when they get lucky isn't enough to offset their massive losses.

Ultra-conservative types tend to fare even worse. They shy away from anything that entails the slightest bit of risk, hoping to hold onto what they have. While they rarely experience any losses, they have no chance of making significant gains.

Fortunately, most of us fall somewhere between these two extremes. Smart people know how to analyze risks and steer clear of those that are unlikely to work out in their favor, yet they realize that some risk is essential if they want to get ahead.

But the successful investor does not take risks like that. He carefully considers the risk versus the potential benefit. He weighs the probability of things turning out favorably versus disaster. He makes an educated guess at how it will work out, evaluates the consequences he will face if it doesn't, and he bases his decision on that. In other words, he looks before he leaps.

One of the keys to determining which risks to take knows what you can realistically afford to lose. This is something that those with an intense fear of risk have trouble with. They either believe that they cannot afford to lose anything, or they convince themselves that they stand to lose a lot more than they really do. The intelligent risk taker, on the other hand, takes the time to assess how much time, money and energy he can reasonably part with. If the amount risked is less than that, and the reward is worthwhile, he moves forward.

A risk wouldn't be a risk without the chance of failure. But if there's also a reasonable chance of success, it is worth considering.

Overcoming Your Fear of Risk:

Starting small is a good way to chip away at your fears. Maybe you could take a small risk that doesn't put money you already have at stake .These changes could result in higher, lower or unchanged profits. But as long as you monitor your results closely and reverse the changes if profits decrease significantly, there's no way you can lose much.

Keep taking these small risks until you've achieved some success. Then move on to progressively larger ones. This will boost your confidence in your decisions and show you that taking risks can work out to your advantage.

Putting the things we've worked hard for on the line is a scary proposition. But if you want to keep building on what you've got, a certain amount of risk is necessary. Not every investment will work out in your favor. But if you make educated decisions, your successes will outweigh your failures.

Always yours

Atul Sikrai 

Sr Vice President  & Head Equities.

wiTdom investment advisory.

    

Money War Room.

Money War Room: Whoever is First on the field and awaits the coming of the Enemy will be fresh for the fight; whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted

I'm going to do something that is unheard of in stock chart and market analysis. I'm going to tell you exactly what I look for in a stock and how I find picks for one of the most popular stock blogs on the Internet.

This is not about using technical analysis to read a stock chart. It is something much more effective.

In fact, I learned this method from a top secret artificial intelligence algorithm that has produced returns in excess of 1,000% annually known only to a few inner circle stock market club members.

This revolutionary algorithm makes your computer think well than a human brain. Older software used statistics and set models for processing, but this algorithm is literally like having 100 stock analysts and day traders sitting inside your computer working for you!

I have used this to make a lot of money and now I'm going to tell you exactly what the algorithm is.

I'm giving you this for free because I'm hoping you make a lot of money from this and become a regular reader of my articles.

Let's begin!

The first component of this formula is to determine the trend. What you want are the daily moving averages in three time frames: the 10 day MA, 20 day MA, and 50 day MA. Here is the first part of the formula: 10 day MA > 20 day MA > 50 day MA. In other words the 10 day MA is higher than the 20 day MA which in turn is higher than the 50 day MA. If the stock you are looking at meets these criteria, then move on to the next component in this formula. If it does not, go back and keep looking for a stock until you find one that does.

The next component in this formula is to determine if on the previous day, in the last hour of trading, the stock closed above the 5 hour MA. If it has, move on to the next component in this killer formula. If not, reject the stock and start all over again until you find a stock that does.

The next component in this formula is to determine if the stock is at a 3 day high. If it is, move on to the next step below. If not, you know the drill, throw away this stock and start over again.

The next component in this formula is if the last price of the stock is above the 20 day MA. If it is, move on, if not, reject and start over.

The next component in this formula is if the stock has hit a 3 week high in the last week (the previous full week of trading). If not, reject the stock and start over.

The final component in this formula is if the stock has hit a 3 month high in the last month (the previous full month of trading).

Making money by speculation is like fighting war but you has to b e equipped by all yr weapons.

Let’s Fight Hard!!!!

Spirit of Strong Regards

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head of Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

Moolah Power

Moolah is a Fijian word meaning 'Moolah'. This word may be the origin of the English slang for 'Money'.

 Any body can make
Moolah if you are with wiTdom. It is raining Moolah at wiTdom Moolah festival. An absolute power in modern society—Moolah makes everything clicks! It remains the single source of almost all temptations and motivations ever known to man—entire empires and kingdoms have been raised and decimated for the lure of the lucre. Today, when social scientists raise ethical issues over the nature of man’s relationship with Moolah, many agree about the constructive potential involved in making it. But at the end of the day the most eternal of all facts is that—all of us need it!

Our attitude towards Moolah reflects our attitude towards life. Moolah is an exchange system between ourselves—our goods, services, skills and creativity, self-expression—and what we need from the world—approval, admiration, status, lifestyle, goods, services. Therefore, our attitude towards Moolah is intimately tied up with our sense of self-worth and self-belief, our sense of security, our value system and our worldview.

New age thinkers frequently overlook the importance of the means of acquiring Moolah. In the Indian scriptures, four aspects are considered important to human existence: dharma or righteous action, artha, the pursuit of wealth, kama, the pleasure principle and finally moksha, liberation. Artha and kama are sandwiched between dharma and moksha to indicate that they must be pursued with due regard for ethical norms and keeping the goal of liberation in mind.

I recall having accountability drilled into me as a child. “My mother would keep accounts and would even follow up on an expenditure of five paisa. We were supposed to tell her how we spent every paisa.”

The early training has given me a strong sense of responsibility in handling money. “As far as my investment tactics are concerned.”

Regards

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President & Head Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

Treasure Hunt its Mind Game.

Usually powerful thoughts beget positive actions. The more you think about something, the more you believe in it. Beliefs motivate you to act. And actions have consequences.
You simply need to find what thought stimulates the wealth flow.
If you think that becoming rich is just an impossible dream, then you are not likely to receive more wealth because of your thoughts. It is the universal law of attraction that is at work, even in the material world of finances.
Instead of believing that you need to move mountains to become rich, try telling yourself that "money comes easily and frequently." Say that often to yourself and believe in it.
If there is any doubt at all about how easy money can flow into your life, that doubt will attract a negative force that prevents you from creating wealth.Money begets money. The universe works according to a natural process of filling and emptying. To get more money, you have to give money. But the act of giving has to come from your heart; otherwise, the law of attraction will view the gift of money as a mere sacrifice, or an act that affirms your lack of money.

Giving more money is a positive act that strongly shows your belief that money comes to you easily. The universal law of attraction will work by responding to your outflow with an inflow, oftentimes greater than what you give out.

Visualize receiving money

Ask and you shall receive. That is how the universe works. Junk all conservative thoughts about money. Stop thinking that the world doesn't owe you material reward. It is this negative attitude about the world working against you that prevents you from reaping all that the world has to offer.

Starting today, picture yourself surrounded with earmarks of wealth and feel it. Change your negative attitude about money. Feel the excitement. Wealth may be on its way.

Always Yours,

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice Precident & Head Of Equity

wiTdom investment advisory.

Wealth Foot Prints.

          

The drawing of Laxmi's footprints are used as a magic charm in India. Women draw these small, auspicious footprints on thresholds at twilight to welcome Lakshmi, who bestows wealth and wisdom, health and good cheer." Goddess Lakshmi, consort of Lord Vishnu, is also the goddess of wealth and prosperity. The word ''Lakshmi'' is derived from the Sanskrit word Laksme, meaning "goal." Lakshmi, therefore, represents the goal of life, which includes worldly as well as spiritual prosperity. Worship Goddess Lakshmi for promotion, success and personal virtues. Praying to Laxmi you will learn how to be truly feminine and win everybody's admiration.

What is genuine wealth? According to Sustainability Within a Generation, genuine wealth is based on a simple premise: that in order for our communities to be truly sustainable, we need to ensure that our total wealth or all forms of capital are in their optimum condition and that they are managed in accordance with the values of citizens. The model is based on the words "genuine", which means to be true to one's values or authentic, and "wealth", which comes from the old English, meaning "the conditions of well-being." Taken together we have a model that measures the conditions of well-being of a community or organization in accordance with the values of its citizens. The Genuine Wealth model is a new tool for measuring not only the well-being of a community but also for charting a sustainable course toward economies of well-being.

Regards,

Atul Sikrai

Sr Vice President  & Head Equities

wiTdom investment advisory.

                                                                                                                          

Market Strategist.

Atul has worked in financial markets for more than a decade and qualified as a technical analyst . Over recent years Atul has been involved in creating and running a wide range of educational programmes for private and institutional investors - ranging from the basics of financial markets through to more advanced trading strategies.

Chart pattern recognition has been widely used among expert traders since the 1930s, to uncover potential opportunities in oversold or overbought markets.

Wall Street initially traded higher after US GDP expanded at a faster pace in the fourth quarter and consumer confidence improved. However, protests in Egypt and a technical glitch on the Nasdaq 100 gave investors an excuse to book profits.

Todays Indictor US CHICAGO PMI-

A survey of Purchasing Managers across the states of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, that aims to measure the business conditions. The survey covers such areas as new orders, inventory levels, production, supplies and employment. The answers are used to compile a 'diffusion index'. 50 is used is a benchmark figure; a figure greater than that indicates expansion, whereas contraction is reflected by a figure below 50.

Weekly Commodity Update: US Dollar Basket

Perhaps the biggest factor in projecting commodity prices for the rest of the year and going into 2011 is the fate of the US dollar on the world foreign exchange market. Precious metals, grains, and tropical commodities have all flirted with record-high prices, as the dollar slipped further and further against its major trading pairs.

During November, the currency markets have found some stability, with the USD finding something resembling support at a very long-term trend line near 77.00, and its exchange value has been working sideways to higher in volatile trade.
Much of the dollar's bottoming out has come in the shadow of a sharp rise in the interest rate complex, as higher consumer prices in the US, combined with the Federal Reserve's renewed commitment to keep the country's money printing presses at full tilt, spurred heavy selling in the treasury bond market. Investors concerned with holding long-term debt in a falling currency with negative real returns have begun shopping elsewhere for higher returns, pushing interest rates higher as bonds fell.
This shift in the perspective of long-term investor psychology is likely to define the trading environment going forward, and will likely continue showing up in the technical price action in both currencies and treasuries, which in turn will have a big effect on the entire commodities sector. As yields on US treasuries become more attractive, and the establishment of a long-term low can be speculated upon by at least some portion of the institutional investment company, the prospect of buying long-term low-risk debt at attractive yields in an undervalued currency (that is, the dollar) shifts buying interest back into the market, and creates the foundation for a long-term cycle of renewed buying interest in dollar-denominated assets.